ichthyoid

Musings on decentralization, creative arts, storytelling, finances, spirituality, and anything else I can think of. Enjoy!

Happy New Year!! We made it!!

It's (finally?) 2021, and the long year of 2020 is behind us (there's a pun in there, I just know it). I imagine that for many people, 2020 has been a pretty strange and even horrible year. For others, it may be bittersweet. But as I sit writing this very first post for the new year, listening to Melodies of Life by the irrefutably brilliant Nobuo Uematsu (seriously, listen to it, it's so good!), I no longer reminisce about the previous year, but look forward to what's to come.

So in this (relatively) short post, let me outline my blogging plans for 2021 (for any who care, haha)!

But first, let's address a potential elephant in the room.

Ah Coil...to be or not to be?

On December 17, 2020, like many other Coil bloggers, I received this interesting (though ultimately not unexpected) email:

Without getting into it much, in my view, this basically means that the monetary boost writers have been receiving for blogging on this platform will soon cease, though the service for web monetization won't. It's not an altogether surprising thing — in fact, I would say that with the direction the Coil platform has been going towards, leaning more towards partnering with different sites and organizations than creating a standout blogging platform specifically, this was probably inevitable.

The great thing about Coil, of course, is that you can basically monetize any website. Which, for me, means...

I'm Making My Own Website!

Yup, probably like many others, I'll be creating my own website and blog. I've actually been planning this for a while, not because I was necessarily expecting Coil Boost to end, but moreso because, while Coil has been an awesome platform to get started on, I've always wanted a bit more control and customization when it comes to the format of my writing and what I wanted the platform to be able to achieve. As many bloggers on Coil know, it hasn't really changed much for writers since the beta release. And so, with that lack of evolution, I decided a while back to start making my own website to accommodate my own wants.

Here's what it looks like so far!

It's a pretty simple, personal blogging site. While it may not be all that catchy, I really love minimalistic designs, and this one hit the right spot for me for both writing and a personal design aesthetic. The final layout won't be very different from the screenshot above (most likely).

Truth be told, I actually used to have my own website. But after a bit of time of no upkeep, someone took my domain name (!!!) on a month that I forgot to pay for it, and I haven't had one up since. So I've actually built a website before, though it was quite different (and much fancier) than the one above.

As you can see, I've moved many of my posts already to the website, and I will be continuing to do so with all of my Coil posts and blogs. I'll then be adding (albeit slowly) some of the things I've written in the past on my older website as well, since those things are pretty valuable to me.

Since it's still a work in progress, I'm going to be blogging a bit about it as well — the practicals, the how-tos, and all that. The great thing about website creation these days is that, literally anyone with access to the Internet can do it, and you can even do the majority of the work offline! And guess what? The vast majority of what anyone would want to do in making their own website requires no programming at all.

So I'll be documenting that process until the release date on (hopefully) January 31st, 2021!

What I'll Be Writing About

In addition to talking about website design, here's some things I'm planning to blog about as well in 2021!

A Theoretical Framework for Social Web Decentralization

I originally started writing on governance with this post on Socrates and the Failings of Democracy. But then, as I began to think about all that I wanted to say on the subject, I realized that it was much bigger than simply “governance” or “blockchain” or “decentralization”.

And so I'm working on a series of posts outlining a theoretical framework for a decentralized world on the web. I'll be beginning the series with a look at what I think are some good and intriguing ideas in both the general Internet space as well as the blockchain space. From there, I'll be talking about the central foundations of finance, some of which I've talked about in my Being Your Own Bank series. Then, to conclude, I'll be discussing the broader concepts of governance and decentralization, and how we can use these ideas to create a better social and financial web.

These posts will be both for fun and (hopefully?) interesting discussion, though we'll have to see how that goes!

Short Stories and other Fictions

As you may have seen in the screenshot above, I'm also planning to finally start releasing some short stories and other fictions (like flash fictions) that I like to write.

I've always been a narrative writer, ever since I was young. I love creating and imagining worlds, and love being immersed in narrative and fantasy. As I've gotten better at writing more regularly (largely thanks to Coil!), I've also had spurts of short story writing on the side that I've never published.

But that changes with 2021! I don't know when exactly I'll start posting them (probably after the website launches), but I hope to share well with the world an interest that I've been more tentative to for a while now.

Continuing Series' and Topics from 2020

As those who have been following me know, I've been writing about two particular things towards the end of 2020: Summarizing and analyzing Thomas Sowell's excellent book Basic Economics, as well as a couple forays into the world of AI.

I will continue to finish Basic Economics, look more into the world of AI, as well as write about other things that interest me, of course. When I finish Basic Economics, and after a summary of what I think are the essential things to learn from it, I also have plans for a new series of reviews on topics that I think are really important for today.

And One More Thing...

I'm not going to say exactly what, yet, (that's a surprise!) but I'll be sharing about something extraordinarily personal as well that is happening to me this year. Inspired by fellow Coil blogger @RileyQ, I'll be doing more actual “blogging” (rather than just writing on abstract topics, though I obviously enjoy doing that) this year than before.

It's not hard to guess, but I'll leave it a mystery for now :-P

Final Thoughts

While I won't be focusing on blogging on Coil exclusively, my plan is to have a large portion of the things I write still posted on this platform. Part of that is because I'm deeply grateful for the Coil platform. But it is also because I'm not exactly certain still about doing only things on my own website. So, I guess we'll see how it all goes.

And that's my plan for 2021! What are your plans?

We are now in chapter 15, the last chapter of this part on time and risk in Thomas Sowell's Basic Economics. In this chapter, we look at miscellaneous problems in these areas.

As always, if you want to look at my previous analyses of this book, click here. Otherwise, let's head get into it!

Chapter Summary

In this world, risk is inescapable. Even if we were to look at agrarian cultures, there was risk to farming, whether from droughts, floods, plagues, or other acts of nature (let alone human immorality). In the modern world, where many are increasingly living in cities, these risks are often less tangible, though no less real. When guarantees (e.g. job security, pay security, etc.) are given, the risk of losing such things is still real. It's just that the guarantor of such promises are, in reality, bearing those risks. This is why professional speculators, though they may not be popular in mainstream culture, are nevertheless just as valid a workforce as the manual laborer.

The biggest factor in all of this is time. Even if you were to guarantee that someone's idea would profit, it still takes time for such an idea to bear the fruits of that success. And since different people have differing levels of patience as well as expectations of profit rates, it's difficult to assess what is best for everyone. Such is the difficulty of any attempt to singularly coordinate an economy.

Uncertainty

In economic terms, while risk is calculable, uncertainty is not. Risk allows things like insurance companies or other entities to cover foreseeable contingencies. Uncertainty, on the other hand, is when some action, like a government constantly changing policies, creates unknowns.

In times of uncertainty, people generally save their money rather than spend, which adversely affects an economy at large. Thus, when newspapers or magazines print headlines that ask why an economy isn't recovering despite many businesses having the capital to do so, it is primarily due to one reason: uncertainty.

Time and Money

In general, the more time something takes, the more money it will take as well (thus the old saying, “time is money”). For example, if someone borrows money for constructing homes in an area, that person will have to continue paying that money with interest even when there is a delay in the schedule. These kinds of delays, which include things like determining environmental dangers or amenities requirements, often add exorbitant amounts to the cost of construction.

Even if the builder doesn't want to build such things like amenities, they may be required to do so by the city. In these cases, either the builder decides to not to build (which would be a detriment to the city), or because of limited resources, must front the cost down the line (e.g. higher home prices).

Thus, these mainly bureaucratic delays are often the source of the high costs of building. Further adding to it is often political corruption, where government entities will delay a project unless they are bribed.

There are other ways time is money as well. For example, the government could raise the retirement age, which actually fronts the cost of paying retirees to private employers. What is important is that people remember the fact that more time means more cost, no matter if a change sounds moral or not.

Economic Adjustments

And so we can see that when there are adjustments in an economy, it takes time (i.e. costs money) to make those adjustments. But because these adjustments take up real time, politicians have grown used to the fact that they can delay the real costs into the future, and create some sort of benefit in the present.

Because people generally don't have much foresight, there is inherent risk with time. Economic activities discussed in previous chapters (e.g. insurance, speculators, etc.) can often minimize them or give the burden to those who can carry them (who typically have the resources to do so). Thus, speculators actually create a situation economically that produces more of a product, given their ability to spread the risk out. But politicians often take advantage of these situations, and decry foul on speculators and insurance companies and retail companies when prices go up due to anticipation of more risk.

This is where time and politics get messy. Politicians often attempt to increase benefits in the present time in order to get elected. However, all they really do (as explained in preceding chapters) is displace the cost to the future. The politician then moves up the hierarchy of politics due to popularity, and the displaced cost comes during his or her successors tenures. They then blame those successors on the costs they pushed on them.

What would a private enterprises do, instead? Since economics anticipate the future through present value, private businesses would use insurance and speculation to offset costs. This may cause prices to rise in the short term, but competition would drive such prices down. Thus, both the cost and risk are alleviated. It simply takes time. Yes, there may be jobs lost in the short term. But jobs are always lost, even in societies in their golden ages. The difference is that when businesses are allowed to flourish, even when jobs are lost, new jobs will take their place.

What people should understand is that government programs often have the unintended consequence of incentivizing behaviors detrimental to the intended policy. For example, when money was given by the U.S. government to help children with learning disabilities, organizations running programs for such children were incentivized to diagnose more of the problem in order to receive more money. Additionally, low-income welfare recipients often told their children to do poorly on test, so they could receive the money given through these programs.

Prices — which are simply costs that reflect whether resources have been allocated efficiently — are incentivized to go down due to competition. But what lower prices should reflect is the knowledge that resources have been allocated efficiently, despite any risks associated with the creation of that product or service. Thus, in a market free of political manipulation, such proper knowledge to assess one's ability to purchase goods or services is what drives the economy beneficially for everyone.

In general, people behave in a way to further their own wants and desires. What that may mean is different depending on who you ask. In a private marketplace, people can be hired to assess risks and analyze data for everyone else's benefit. Economically, this is a far better way to alleviate problems than governmental intervention.

My Thoughts

It's fitting, perhaps, that I'm writing about this chapter in the wake of the recent news about the SEC's case against Ripple. I think it's a pretty clear example of a government entity stepping into something that it may not have much understanding of, given that XRP is basically just a technologically superior Bitcoin (which it ruled as not a security in 2019), and one with far more utility.

I also think it's significant, however, that the price of XRP has bled to less than half of its value since the announcement of the SEC's case. Such a thing usually only happens to real securities — when a company does poorly, its stocks often drop in price as people lose faith in it. Of course, this doesn't actually mean XRP is a security, but rather reflects the fact that, in many people's minds, XRP is imminently tied to Ripple, an association that is, in my opinion, extremely detrimental to the coin's utility.

But instead of getting lost in all that hubbub, I instead want to concentrate on price and cryptocurrency. Namely what information prices should be giving in the crypto space.

Vitalik Buterin, the creator of Ethereum blockchain, recently wrote a fascinating rundown of 2020 in regards to crypto. In it, he talked about how the Internet has changed the way we need to think about economics. Given Sowell's definition, that economics is the allocation of scarce resource with multiple uses, he may be partially right.

Much of the internet is built on code. As Buterin explains, however, this code is infinitely replicable. Unlike physical matter, we can take any byte of code, and just copy it over to another software.

A similar thing can be said for crypto, though not in the same way. While blockchain technology prevents double-spend, we can certainly all simply create our own blockchains based on the code for them that's already out there. In fact, if you wanted to, you can simply follow this Youtube tutorial to make your own.

However, if something is infinitely replicable, economically, it has no value. This is because that's the literal opposite of scarcity (or even in some ways, my definition of limited access). Thus, economically, when something is infinitely replicable, it has no value.

This is probably why the Internet eventually evolved around social media. Because the internet itself is infinitely replicable, the value to use it rests in the people who use it. People, and their attention, are still a scarce resource. Thus, in order to create value, advertising became the norm for monetization.

However, now, we have this new internet-based technology called blockchain and cryptocurrency. The same problem still exists (i.e. infinitely replicable technology). So how can cryptocurrencies derive value?

In my estimation, they still need to be attached to people. It will ultimately be the people who are invested in certain projects which utilize cryptocurrencies effectively that give them value. Thus, while improving the tech within different blockchains is important, if people don't flock behind and support the project, in reality, it has no value.

And I think that, ultimately, this is a part that Ripple has been missing for quite a while. While they certainly have made strong connections with enterprises, financial institutions, and even some governments, on the Internet, they seem to have almost no social capital. It's difficult to go into a general cryptocurrency sphere without hearing about how evil Ripple is, and how XRP is a 'banker's coin' (which means basically nothing at this point).

This lack of wide support (and understanding) has cost the XRP ecosystem dearly for quite a few years now, a cost that is reflected in its price.

Of course, being someone who writes on Coil, as well as has investments in XRP among other currencies, my obvious desire is that XRP will do well. But, in order for such a thing to happen, I believe that the popular stigma around it needs to be alleviated. Such alleviation can only happen when projects are developed on it that outstrip the usability and utility of other projects.

And only time (wink wink) will tell if that will happen.

Continuing with our series in summarizing and analyzing Thomas Sowell's Basic Economics, we now head into chapter 14 to talk about the more tantalizing subjects of stocks, bonds, and insurance.

The headliner quote for this chapter is:

Risk-taking is the mother's milk of capitalism

And with that intriguing premise, let's dive in!

Chapter Summary

In addressing risk in the market, we've previously talked about speculation, and how its function is actually a hedge against the volatility of markets, rather than a gambling with higher risk for greater rewards. Stocks and bonds are similar in this way.

Capital gains, which means a form of income that requires some time investment before anything is earned, is a useful term to refer to these items. Of course, this term actually includes other things as well, such as savings accounts. In any case, the level of gains, often in the form of interest, needs to outpace inflation in order for the rate of return to be worth anything. Since inflation varies from year to year (as well as locale to locale), it is a risk (one of many) that must be considered as one looks to invest in this area.

Since having money later is worth less than having that same amount now (due to inflation), people would rather pay more to have money now than later. This tells us that there is actually different value to money, despite it being the same “amount”.

With this understanding, let's look at why people get bonds. Though a bond guarantees you to receive a certain interest rate, you would not want to pay more than that interest rate to get the bond. Thus, for a $10,000 bond, you wouldn't want to pay more than $8,928.57 for it at a 12% interest rate. Any higher price than that 8k, and you'd rather put your money somewhere else. Thus, when interest rates go up, bond prices typically go down.

This all gets really interesting (and a bit of a headache) when factoring in taxes on the capital gains. One would need to know what their gain would be, the time required to make that gain, the inflation rate, and then the tax on top of that to see if, in the end, they would make a gain at all. Not all countries tax capital gains, but significant ones (like the United States) do.

Variable Returns versus Fixed Returns

Bonds are legal commitments of payment, while stocks are shares of a company that one can buy to participate in certain capacities of that business. Stocks are not guarantees of a business profiting (or even that the company will eventually give out dividends to stockholders), but a bond legally binds promised payment. In this way, bond holders are actually entitled to payment even before the owners of that business receive the results of their profits.

There is still risk of course, in buying bonds, since a failed business cannot repay those funds fully. Thus, whether to buy bonds or stocks of a business depends on whether one can afford the risk of getting only a small portion of their money back (bonds), or none of it back (stocks). The reward of stocks though, is that if a business thrives and its assets increase in value, the stock owner will receive compensation accordingly in stock value, whereas bonds won't budge above the promised payment.

Thus, stock investing for new businesses is often called “venture capital” investments. Venture capitalists often need to make at least 50% profit on their successful businesses to cover other losses. From an economic perspective, the long-term profit of venture capitalism shows an efficient allocation of resources, even though many new businesses seem risky.

On the other side, the kinds of businesses that would often issue stocks or bonds depend on this risk factor as well. New ventures or technology innovation companies usually issue things like stocks, because they would want to attract investors who want to earn high rewards. But other businesses like public utility companies tend to offer bonds, since there is little risk involved, and little desire to pay out much to investors.

In general, successful businesses' stocks will have a higher average rate of return than bonds. So while bonds might pay out more in a single year, over a period of 20-30 years, stocks have such high averages as to eclipse the rate of inflation, which bonds tend to be outpaced by during that same amount of time.

This doesn't mean the stock market has no risk, of course. Any portfolio that wishes to gain on average, no matter whether bonds and stocks lose or gain value over time, will diversify. Even if a portfolio was to have only stocks, it would de-risk through investing in a mix of companies rather than a single one. Here, professional speculators often have a group of select business stocks they manage, called a “mutual fund”, that other investors buy into. These are often less risky than investing in single stocks, though, of course, they have less potential for large gains.

When students take loans for the education, we can actually think of it like a bank is investing in a bond. After all, the student owes a certain amount of money, but rarely rewards the bank with more if they are successful. Because many students actually end up not graduating college, the structure of the bond as a loan allows banks to pool them together in order to mitigate that risk.

Here, Sowell offers an interesting speculation: if students could issue both 'stocks' and 'bonds' in themselves, it may be that both parents and taxpayers would not need to subsidize such education. Institutions could invest in these students with the expectation that a percentage of their earnings would go towards them, thus reducing the need to have the students pay such high rates up front.

Such investment in people could not only benefit students, but others as well. For example, in the world of boxing, boxing managers take a percentage of their boxer's winnings. In the world of filmmaking, agents who represent actors take a similar cut. While these different arenas don't necessarily use the terms “stocks” and “bonds”, the effect is essentially the same economically.

Insurance

First, it's important to establish the principles of real insurance.

Insurance companies deal with the inherent risk of losses. There are different chances of losses of course. For example, car insurance companies charges lower prices for safer drivers. By doing this, they can reduce their exposure to risk, and communicate through the higher prices the cost of having a more dangerous job or even location. Thus, since prices are pooled together by insurance companies, the risk of loss is mitigated on both a micro and macro scale.

Let's take, for example, at life insurance. Life insurance is a policy dealing with death, which is both a universal and yet unpredictable event. Because no one knows when they'll die, the money being paid into an insurance company is money to be paid back in the event of such a thing happening. Thus, the risk of untimely death is transferred to a the insurance company. Because the insurance is pooled across different people, the risk to the insurance company is reduced. In addition, the individual policy is worth more to the buyer than the seller, because the buyer will receive more benefits than if he or she did not have a policy.

What do insurance companies do with the premiums they receive? After paying claims, they typically invest the money they have, most of the time in government securities and conservative loans. Thus, if the insurance company knows what it's doing, it is taking your premiums and growing it, thus if a loss is incurred (e.g. someone has passed away), the amount the insurance company must pay for claims is then less than they have made.

Like in other arenas of the market, competition forces prices lower in the insurance market. For example, as the Internet began to boom, and insurance companies began to provide services on the web, prices of term life insurance began to decline. Furthermore, it wouldn't make sense for insurance to cost higher than an uninsured event (or else, no one would buy it). Such things, in addition to fraud prevention, have allowed general insurance costs to decline over time.

Of course, there are people who take advantage of their insurance by behaving more riskily than if they didn't have it. And people who are ill or live in areas where a specific issue (e.g. diseases, fires, etc.) are more prevalent are going to automatically be riskier to cover. Such things drive up insurance costs, since insurance companies must take those increased risks into account.

It gets more tricky as the government is involved. While governments can prohibit risky behavior (thus driving down insurance costs), some governmental policies can do the opposite. When governments force people or businesses to purchase insurance, it is typical for these entities to engage in riskier behavior. Additionally, when governments decide to politicize “fairness”, like forcing insurance companies to charge the same prices for everyone no matter who or where they live or what age they are, insurance prices are then driven up, because these companies must protect against risk.

Thus, politics that are concerned with fairness (an undefinable term, really) and not understanding risk actually cause more harm (i.e. make things more expensive) than good.

Government “Insurance”

There are governmental programs that also deal with risk, such as the National Flood Insurance Program or the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the United States.

The problem with these kinds of programs is that they are not really true insurance, because they don't reduce risk. Instead, these particular programs are making it cheaper (and thus incentivizing them) to live in more risky areas. Furthermore, they are putting the burden of that cost on all taxpayers, since that's how they make money.

The political part of these disaster relief programs often focus on the cost of the damage, and thus manipulating people to care for others and be willing to send money via tax to them. But they often don't talk about reducing the risk of damage. Thus, when governments force insurance companies to reduce prices, often, insurance companies just bail out of coverage of riskier places or raise all their premiums.

Insurance companies are competitive entities. Their entire business depends on their quality and speed. For example, they cannot afford to be later in their payouts than others, or else people would leave them en mass. In a comparison to the disaster relief of Hurrican Katrina in 2005, Sowell quotes the Wall Street Journal:

In August, 2005, Hurrican Katrina flattened two bridges, [a government] one for cars, [a privately owned] one for trains, that span the two miles of water separating this city of 8,000 from the town of Pass Christian. Sixteen months later, the automobile bridge remains little more than pilings. The railroad bridge is busy with trains.

Even in the areas of insurance, free-market-based mentality will always deliver where governmental ones cannot.

My Thoughts

The idea of risk-taking, and mitigating the chances of those risks, is really interesting. I've thought for a while now that stocks and bonds were simply ways for the average individual to participate in a bigger economy, and I'm glad that Sowell basically affirms that here. In economic terms, it's basically just allocating resources around more efficiently.

Furthermore, understanding how mutual funds, ETFs and insurance companies are really entities that mitigate risk is interesting. I think people are so used to the idea that insurance companies are ripping them off or fraudulent, that 'insurance' has basically become a dirty word.

It seems that the truth is actually both simpler and more devious. It is in the best interest of insurance companies in a free market to lower their prices, so as to get more customers. It is also in the best interest (especially in today's internet age) for these companies to offer quality and speed in their offerings. These incentives—better quality, more speed, and cheaper prices—are rarely ever met in any single business, but insurance companies in a competitive free market are incentivized to do so.

It is only two things that cause the prices to go up: when a political authority steps in and demands certain prices or behaviors from these companies, or when they have to deal with riskier ventures, locations, and even people.

But what these prices are telling us is not that the insurance companies are greedy (remember, they are actually incentivized to be the opposite), but rather that it is costing the insurance companies more to mitigate risk for everyone. THAT is the information people should walk away with, rather than a judgment on a company or group of people they don't know.

Even when we look at political authorities, we shouldn't necessarily regard them as evil or not. It's not that they are inherently evil. Instead, governmental authorities simply aren't elected because they are experts in the fields they attempt to address. They are only experts at getting elected. And thus, to have political authorities step in to deliver solutions is rarely the best option, simply because they don't know how. They only know how to make people feel good about them.

I think if people begin to regard prices as sources of knowledge rather than how they relate to the character of a business or group of people, we'd probably be in a much better state to address the real concerns happening around the world. And not be so easily seduced by easy answers from political authorities.

Previously, in the first part of chapter 13, we began by talking about different kinds of investments and how interest rates work. In this part, we'll continue by exploring speculation, inventories, and assessing value.

If you want to see what my previous summaries are for this excellent book, please click here. Otherwise, let's begin!

Disclaimer: Because of the nature of this chapter and (probably) future ones, I must make it clear that NONE of what I write or summarize in any of my blog posts should be construed as financial advice of any kind. This is all here purely for educational purposes.

Chapter Summary

Speculation

There are many forms of speculation. The most notable of these is stocks and shares, where people speculate that various companies, both private and public, will either turn a profit or not. However, there are other forms as well, such as movie scripts, works of art, currencies, and even things like looking for natural resources such as oil.

While virtually anyone can participate in speculation, there are, of course, people whose whole careers revolve around it. Like the middle men we talked about before, their job is essentially to speculate on behalf of other people. Since all investments involve risk, these professional speculators should theoretically reduce the risk for others by their research or other work, and thus over time gain profit.

Speculation isn't evil in itself. It's not the same as gambling. When someone gambles, they are creating a risk that isn't there (e.g. playing the slots or poker when you don't have to). Real speculation, on the other hand, acknowledges the inherent risk in a situation (e.g. whether harvest season will boom or bust), and attempts to help people in that situation to make a profit over time.

For example, if a speculator buys the wheat product of a farmer who has yet to plant, the speculator is offering that farmer a guarantee on his or her product at the current time. This allows the farmer not to have to worry about what the future price of the wheat is going to be, he can go ahead and plant. When he harvests and sells it to the speculator, the speculator has now either made a profit because the price has gone up, or made a loss because the price has gone down at the time of harvest. Even though people rarely always profit from every trade, over time, if the speculator understands markets or a specific product well, they will come out ahead. In this way, it can be a mutually beneficial relationship for the producer (i.e. farmer) and the speculator.

Speculators come in all shapes and sizes. As Sowell mentions, there are farmers in third-world countries who engage in global speculation, since it can be very profitable for them to do so. Additionally, they come from all kinds of walks of life, including agriculture, the food industry, fuel and mineral resources, etcetera. Often, those who do it individually are partaking in far more risk, while those who seek professional help are generally better off both financially and psychologically.

Economically, speculation is just another way to allocate resources — in these cases, knowledge — and can be thought of more as a risk management business rather than gambling.

Inventories

Having inventories (i.e. storage) is another way to allocate the resource of knowledge. After all, if everyone had perfect knowledge, there would never be any waste or lack. But because no one knows everything, a general expectation is to have as much inventory so as to not run out, but at the same time small enough to reduce maintenance costs as much as possible.

Having too much or too little in a business's inventory is basically losing or wasting money. It's all about efficiently allocating resources. If a business has too much inventory (i.e. buying too much to sell), it will often become bankrupt due to too much spending. If it carries too little, it will not be able to effectively serve its customers, who will eventually go elsewhere, and thus again bankrupting the business.

Economically, good times means more predictability. Thus, in these good times, businesses are often able to keep their inventories in check, because they are better able to predict what they need. When things become unpredictable however (i.e. bad times like recessions), businesses often don't know, and so buy up more inventory than is usually needed. This often has the effect of increasing prices, because businesses are buying more and they are selling at higher prices to insure their larger inventories. During such times, even if products are selling a rapid rates, it often doesn't lead to more jobs, since the ratio of inventories vs. selling hasn't changed.

Present Value

Many goods have lasting effects that are beneficial or detrimental beyond the initial moment of purchase. Thus, while the present value of something is shown in the price of a product or service at the time or purchase, that price may incorporate the potential future benefits or detriments of the good. In things like valuing homes or businesses, this kind of valuation is always in anticipation of such potential futures.

For example, if a city announces building a sewage treatment plant, the houses immediately surrounding where they plan to build the plant will almost immediately decline in value, even if the plant hasn't been built yet. This is because no one wants to live near a sewage plant, now or in the future.

Such future consequences are what make the difference between economics and politics. Economists always have the future benefits or detriments in view, because the value of a product or service or society depends on it. Politicians, however, rarely look beyond whether their policies are keeping people happy so as to get themselves elected. Whether that happiness results in benefits or detriments in society is rarely considered.

In this way, economics is checked by present value.

The discovery and use of natural resources also has effects on its present value. In the case of oil, its present value (and thus, price) is dictated by whether anyone wants to or is able to use it, both now and in the future. This is despite whether the actual resource is predicted to run out, since we don't know if we have discovered all the pockets of oil around the world.

Exploring for and drilling oil is extremely costly. this is because even exploring for oil has to obey the laws of supply and demand. If you already have more oil than you want to find, you may just keep using the oil you have, instead of looking for more. But as existing supplies of oil are slowly used up, people begin to look for more.

Oil is an interesting topic, because the average person is inundated with tales of it being non-renewable. This is true. Technically, however, the sun is also non-renewable. But the fact is that we don't really know just how much oil there is in the earth. We're constantly finding more and more pockets as we explore.

This is similar to the use of iron and coal (to make steel). Despite both iron and oil being used in abundance, and even more in the past century than ever before, we still keep finding more iron ore reserves, just as we do with oil. But no one is really making a fuss about running out of iron, despite steel being used in large quantities even today.

Of course, ultimately, these resources will eventually run out. The problem comes when we try to predict when they will do so. Since we don't know how much there is in the earth, this is basically an impossible task. All we do know is that technology improves, thus enabling us to find more and better ways to extract and use the resources we currently have. Prices for these resources, in the meantime, will always be subject to the laws of supply and demand.

In this way, politics meets economics in an interesting way. While politics is concerned with the quantities of a resource (again, a generally unknowable problem), economics is concerned with prices, cost, and present values. As Thomas Sowell says, these things must also “be considered if practical conclusions are to be reached.”

My Thoughts

It's not unexpected to think of crypto when talking about speculation these days. In fact, the two are almost synonymous, given the state of cryptocurrency today.

Sowell's take on speculators in particular — that professional speculators are basically middle men who take the risk away from speculation for the general public — is intriguing. It would explain why so many institutional investors have not yet dipped their toes into the blockchain space.

In the present climate, especially given today's (12/17/2020) very volatile market, it's difficult to see where any professional speculator would be able to de-risk their clients. Almost every single crypto asset is tied to Bitcoin. Thus, when Bitcoin rises, everything generally rises. If Bitcoin falls, rarely will another coin rise. When the entire market is so correlated to a single asset, there is actually no stability. Investors cannot de-risk, because there is no asset they can exchange from or to in order to alleviate the risk.

That is, until you consider stablecoins. Stablecoins could be the de-risking asset. After all, because of just how liquid and easily they are to exchange, their volatility is less than even currencies traded on 4X markets.

Yet, I think stablecoins do something very strange in the crypto space that isn't reflected in normal market exchanges. At least, not on the same timescale.

Since stablecoins are so liquid and stable, and the rest of the market is correlated to Bitcoin, there is no need for institutional investors to get into other coins outside of Bitcoin. It's actually quite rare (and unpredictable) for a coin to rise more than Bitcoin. It's even rarer for that coin to not fall back to below its peak before Bitcoin overtakes it in rising. Why would institutional investors put much into other coins, when Bitcoin is much more predictable, and thus reliable?

In this case, the slowness of Bitcoin (and in some ways Ethereum) is actually an advantage. Because it's so slow, and costs so much to transfer around, investors are incentivized to hold onto it more than trade it. This is becomes an active component in reducing supply, thus increasing its value.

Additionally, in most investors' minds, even institutional ones, Bitcoin is basically synonymous with all of crypto. If you were to ask a financial guru, some may have heard of Bitcoin, and even a couple will know about Ethereum or XRP. But the rest of the space have never even heard of USDT or USDC or DAI, let alone the plethora of other coins out there.

And so, we have come upon the main problem for altcoins. If pro speculators are indeed a sort of de-riskers, as Sowell says, then I think altcoins actually have a really long way to go before they can de-couple from Bitcoin. Most likely, the only way to do this is to have such a high volume of trade due to the utility of the altcoin that such utility would keep the coin afloat, even when the price of Bitcoin dumps.

We've arrived at Part 4 of Thomas Sowell's Basic Economics. In this part, we're going to be exploring the idea of time and risk in the market, and how these things affect the allocation of scarce resources that have multiple uses (i.e. economics!).

In chapter 13, we begin by talking about investments. If you want to see what my previous summaries are for this excellent book, please click here. Otherwise, let's begin!

Note: This is a VERY LONG chapter. Consequently, I'll be doing two parts for it.

Disclaimer: Because of the nature of this chapter and (probably) future ones, I must make it clear that NONE of what I write or summarize in any of my blog posts should be construed as financial advice of any kind. This is all here purely for educational purposes.

Chapter Summary

In talking about investments, time may be the most fundamental of all 'scarce resources with multiple uses' to be allocated. When thinking of investments, this means sacrificing real things in the present so that more things can be had in the future. Since we're dealing with an unknown future, investment is always going to take some form of risk.

The reality is that almost anything is an investment. In the case of artists, the time they invested in improving their skills and education was an investment. Thus, when students apply for loans for higher education, they are asking banks or the government to take a risk to invest in them, so that their future work resulting from their education would repay this investment.

This isn't about morality, but simple economics. There is no obligation to force any investment to be paid off, because the market determines whether any investment has value in society. If an investment fails, it should not be paid off, because that actually means it isn't needed or demanded by consumers. A failed investment is a signal that others need to stop making such investments.

Let's look at two different kinds of investments.

Kinds of Investments

HUMAN CAPITAL is a form of investment which includes education, though that isn't the only form. Yet, education in modern industrialized nations is often the most emphasized. While most people recognize that education has contributed to better economic development and better standards of living, this isn't to say that all forms of education have equally contributed to such things. This is because practical subjects such as mathematics and medical sciences are not the same as literature and art, the latter of which may not produce skillsets which can more immediately add benefit in society.

When we look at Third World countries, we can see a difference between people who have been educated and those who don't. Those who have a lot of schooling, yet no 'economically meaningful skills' are actually a large source of the unemployment in these nations. Thus, such people are often hired into government or bureaucratic positions, so as to avoid their eventual civil unrest due to joblessness. These bureaucrats are then responsible for the masses of laws and red tape that become obstacles for those who often do contribute to the country's economy in a more direct way (through their labor or entrepreneurship).

It's important to recognize that much of what we're used to in modern society wasn't born from people who were 'highly educated'. As Sowell points out, the airplane was invented by bicycle mechanics with no higher education, electrical inventions were invented and promulgated by Thomas Edison (who had only three months of formal schooling), and many other things besides. Even now, we can see that businesses like Apple and Microsoft, which have enormous influence on the tech world, were started by people who also rejected higher education. Thus, it's not that education is necessarily bad, but lots of schooling doesn't always lead to better economic (and thus societal) development.

FINANCIAL INVESTMENTS are another type of investment. This is when people take the money that they could spend on current goods and services, and instead put them in something in the hopes of receiving back more in the future. In a broader sense, this basically means investors are allocating resource to resource producers (e.g. factories, ships, dams, etc.) rather than the products themselves in the hope that such producers could make more products in the future than presently.

The vast majority of investments come from large institutions like banks and insurance companies. More importantly, what these large institutions do is allow the little guy to participate in the larger economy to make gains from it, despite not necessarily knowing all the intricacies of those different products, assets, and services. Thus, they often have large collections of capital at the ready, funded by stock holders and depositors. They further allow borrowers and lenders to come together to effectively take future income (i.e. credit and interest) to pay for the present. The truth is that all money that is stored with third parties (i.e. banks, etc.) participates in this process, since depositors' money is almost always being lent out to other people and businesses.

Thus, we often see that countries without the ability to allow institutional investment en mass are unable to generate wealth very quickly. It's not that necessarily that there is a lack of ideas or entrepreneurship, or even that these countries are poor to begin with. After all, many great inventions came from people with modest beginnings (e.g. Henry Ford, Hewlett-Packard, etc.). Such inventions that affect us today, however, were also situated in societies in which financial institutions could readily allocate resources to support them. As Sowell notes:

It is not that the wealth is not there in less developed economies. The problem is that their wealth cannot be collected from innumerable small sources, concentrated, and then allocated in large amounts to [any] particular entrepreneurs”

Since these large financial institutions are difficult to understand, many people have a low opinion of them. Yet, their fundamental role of redistributing resources in society is not to be taken lightly. The vacuum left in the wake of their departure is often societal decline and poverty.

Returns on Investment

For the most part, people are hoping for a positive return on their investment. This can even include raising children, in the parents' hopes that their kids will one day either take care of them in their old age, or at the very least be of benefit to society as a whole. In this way, the continuation of generations of human life can be seen as the most basic form of investing.

A lot of people talk about investors having “unearned income”, since they may not see any contributions an investor makes in the present. However, oftentimes, an investor took a risk several years prior to put money into building a factor, and is only now earning dividends or income from it. They also took the time to make sure there was good management, proper suppliers and distributers, and other things that determine whether their investment succeeds or fails. In this way, risks taken by investors are often invisible, but no less important than the visible creation of a product. Thus, the idea of workers being the only ones who create wealth is very untrue.

In the same way, money-lending is often derided in society. And thus, laws are often created to help borrowers have more time or latitude to repay loans. But we need to remember that loans are made because someone is already taking a risk in giving their money out. By making it more difficult to collect on due debts, the law is actually hindering people's ability to help others make products that may benefit society as a whole. That is why lenders charge interest — it is a charge for accessing the investor's funds, which are then used to make the new service or products.

In this way, we can see interest rates as measures of supply and demand for investing. When interest rates are low, people tend to save less and borrow cheaply. When interest rates are high, the opposite happens, and borrowing becomes more expensive. In a free market, lenders will decrease interest rates to incentivize borrowing, or increase them when they see a lack of supply. However, when government entities set rates, they affect unintended parts of the economy.

For example, in the early 2000's, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to try to save decreasing employment and production growth. The lower rates led to lower mortgage payments, which increased the price of houses (due to demand) and reduced the price of rent in apartments. People also began to save less. These unintended consequences show how connected everything is in an economy.

As a final note in this section, it's important to understand that interest rates are often correlated with the time a loan is meant to be paid off. The shorter the time frame for total payment (i.e. payday loans), the higher the interest rate often is (so as to better guarantee payment). Yet, government authorities in the United States often try to put a ceiling on rates. This affects different ethnic and racial groups in different ways.

While many might celebrate the government putting lower ceilings on interest rates, what often happens is that these lower ceilings then block out many racial minority groups in the US from borrowing. This is because payday loaners can no longer charge high interest amounts for high income borrowers (which are more guaranteed) so as to make up for the lower income borrowers who are less likely to pay back. And thus, only millionaires and billionaires, most of whom are not racial or ethnic minorities, are allowed to borrow.

It's not actually about race. Instead, it's the understanding that higher income earners are more guaranteed to pay back their debt. It just so happens that racial and ethnic minorities in the US tend not to be high income earners. After all, in these circumstances, Asian Americans are often allowed to borrow, since on average their income is higher than even white Americans.

END OF PART I.

My Thoughts

There were two main things that jumped out at me as I read this chapter, having to do with education and financial investment. Let's take a look at these two topics.

Education and Economy

One of the biggest issues in the United States currently is student loan debt for higher education. It's a big issue due to two primary reasons. First, in the United States, the amount of money needed to attend universities at the undergraduate, graduate, and doctorate/post-doctorate levels is insanely high, costing tens of thousands of dollars for even public state-run ones. A large portion of the higher education student population must get a loan from a bank or a similar institution to even attend (let alone get room and board).

The second problem is even worse. While universities certainly have subjects of study which are important and helpful to society, it is undeniable that many majors and minors in universities largely useless. Liberal arts degrees and other similar things, while often stimulating and a great source of enrichment for people's lives, are nonetheless impractical, and cannot guarantee its graduates any jobs. A recent number I saw said that around 40% of US college undergraduates are underemployed when they graduate. This basically means that they are unable to find jobs that suit their degree, and must work lower wage jobs.

As given by the above summary of Sowell's explanations, in terms of economics, this means that colleges and universities are unable to churn out students whose skills are in demand by society at large. In other words, while there is a large supply of workers, since those workers' skills are not wanted, there has been a surplus of workers created. Worse, yet, a surplus of workers who are deeply in debt.

A large movement in the US wants to cancel these student loans, many arguing for full restitution. However, when we understand the basic principles of economics, we realize that cancelling student loans would not actually solve the problem. Why? Because the producers of these low-demand workers will still keep churning low-demand workers out. The problem isn't the debt. The problem is the machine which incentivizes and produces low-skill labor. In this case, the universities, and the system which encourages more and more students to go to them.

The truth is, we simply cannot tell young people that by going to a good school, they can be guaranteed a certain level of income, stability, and security. The world, by and large, moves far too fast for such guarantees to be real, no matter where in the historical timeline you are in. Nothing can replace the real experience of getting into the world, learning to work, enduring both failure and success, and seeing what works for you individually. No education can guarantee anything in the real world.

The Role of Institutions in the World of Crypto

The second thing that stood out to me was the idea of investment and the role which financial institutions play. After reading through Sowell's rationale behind these juggernauts that seem to always be at the foundation of everything wrong with society, I do understand their necessity. However, I do think cryptocurrency may a key to allowing everyday people to have a more personal role in engaging in all of this.

First, I want to make clear that I'm not saying that banks and financial institutions will disappear. Even in the crypto space, there is still a fight between CeFi and DeFi, one which points to the merits of both. To reiterate something I've said before, it seems to me that fully decentralized finance makes lending and borrowing accessible to anyone, and if you're really clever, you can make killing being either a market maker or simply taking advantage of different loan options yourself.

However, most people don't really want to have to mind their finances so closely. We all have day jobs, and everyone would rather be able to pursue their interests and passions. Thus, CeFi services like BlockFi and Celsius Network (and eventually other similar services offered by bigger financial institutions) still have a place. And what I've noticed is that, while DeFi can certainly offer higher returns, those returns aren't stable. If one wants more stable returns, CeFi is by-and-large still the way to go.

It's the argument for specialization (middle-men) which Sowell explained before. There will always be 'middle-men' who can do a better job at something than we can. Thus, for those of us who want to concentrate on other things, their services are actually quite valuable.

That being said, it's easy to understand how DeFi can allow the entire world to begin participating in wealth generation. After all, as long as you have an Internet connection, I can now invest in you, even if I'm in the United States and you're in Africa—or heck, even Antarctica! I can invest using crypto or stablecoin, and through the power of smart contracts, loan that money with interest. All this without requiring any bank or other financial institution.

Such an insane level of freedom of participation is sure to have ramifications for how large investment institutions function, though I can't say I know how, exactly. But it certainly does make me excited to see how this future will play out. Hopefully, for the better.

Much of the western world today can trace its influence back to the Romans and Greeks of Antiquity. Their social, political, and philosophical views can be felt and seen etched in almost every facet of life — from building architecture down to the way public schools are run. What's interesting is that, despite how much their influence pervades our culture, there there is one mode of thought made by one of their most famous philosophers that is very different from how we may think today.

That man's name is Socrates. And he had a particular hatred for one of the most valued tenets of western culture: Democracy.

Why Socrates is Important

My first exposure to Socrates. Ah, Calvin and Hobbes, you taught me so much. The above comic, of course, has little to do with the real Socrates (whom I called “so-krāts” as a child).

The real Socrates was a Greek philosopher who we now know of thanks to the writings of one of his disciples, Plato. Socrates was known for his exceptional analysis of moral society and thought, including the envisioning of the Allegory of the Cave (which inspired modern works like The Matrix) as well as the creation of the Socratic Method. He is famous for quotes such as, “I know that I know nothing” and “The unexamined life is not worth living.”

Socrates, despite living in Athenian society where democracy was espoused rather than the tyrannical dictatorship sold by their Spartan brothers to the south, had a sort of distaste for the political process. For him, it wasn't about whether people generally should govern, but rather, what kind of people should have the ability to govern. And due to this perspective, he had severe doubts as to whether the majority of a population should have such an ability.

Ironically, he was sentenced to death by the vote of 500 Athenian jurists.

Why is Democracy so Bad?

First, let's look at it from Socrates' point of view.

As he argues with Adeimantus in Plato's Republic, Socrates compared society to a ship. Every ship has different roles, including the captain who is entrusted to know how to get the ship from where it is to where it's supposed to be. Who should be in charge of this job? Can it be just anyone? Or should it be someone who has been educated in the ways of naval navigation?

The obvious answer is, of course, the latter. We want experts to be in charge of the ship. In the same way, why would we let just anyone tell everyone else how to run society? After all, voting doesn't guarantee that the person being voted for has such skills.

Instead, Socrates wisely points out that voting itself is a skill. Knowing what kinds of issues are being raised, and how best to deal with them is a real skill required to know how to best govern people. If people are not properly educated, then what ends up happening is demagoguery, which is when people exploit others' emotions, seducing them with easy answers, so that they could be elected.

In an imagined debate between a doctor and a sweets store owner, the sweets owner will probably say to you, “Look at how the 'doctor' treats you and makes you feel horrible with his medicine. If you elect me, I'll give you all the delicious food you could ever want!”

The doctor, perhaps, would reply with, “I will give you something that will cause you pain, but it's so that I can help you!”

It would be unreasonable to assume that a person uneducated about their own health would ever choose the doctor. In the same way, people who are uneducated about effective governance would be in a poor position to elect the right political authorities for the good of society. In this way, democracy actually exacerbates a problem when the majority of people have no idea how governance works. They would simply vote, en mass, for the sweets store owner, and slowly but inevitably vote their own destruction.

Of course, Socrates himself eventually argued in the Republic that the best ruler for society would be king who was also a wise philosopher, like himself. This is another strange irony, as it turns out that not even wise philosophers can avoid the temptation of wanting to rule over the rest. And even if that person was a good benevolent ruler, there is no guarantee that succeeding ones will be as well, as indicated by nearly all dictatorships in history.

The Ramifications of Pushing Democracy

Let's consider what democracy truly is: mob rule.

It sounds a little harsh, but that's the reality. Democracy, a political system in which the perceived majority of a given population determines the rules by which the entire population should live under, is essentially rule by the mob. It's important to remember that it's the perceived majority, not an actual majority. Why can't society be ruled by an actual majority?

The mob we are talking about is not always the biggest group, or even necessarily a large group. Instead, it's simply the most vocal or visible group. This mob, then, demagogues its way to either inspire or intimidate others into acquiescing to their demands. Since the vast majority of people just want to be left the !@#$ alone, they tend to conform. A smart mob knows to get others to slowly conform, a little bit at a time (a well-known brainwashing technique), using peer pressure and focused targeting. Then, when this mob has a majority of people following what they want, their demands are written into law. Thus, while the actual majority couldn't have cared less about what the mob wanted, because a perceived vocal majority want it, they often go along with it.

When we don't understand that democracy is simply mob rule, we make grave mistakes, like sending military into nations with completely different, and sometimes even adverse, cultural norms with the intention of establishing democracies. By labeling those other nations “dictatorships” or “tyrannical”, we are simply betraying our naïveté about how democracies really work. Rule by one is not necessarily more evil than dictatorship by the mob. In many ways, dictatorship by the mob is actually worse.

And when we invade, and then leave after “building a democracy”, there is a vacuum that is created where a much more violent mob can move in and take over. Thus we have ISIS, the Arab Spring, Egypt after Gaddafi, et cetera.

There certainly are examples where instituting democracy to replace of other types of governance resulted in a better society. These examples include Taiwan (vs. China), South Korea (vs. North), and Japan (vs. what it was before). And we can't really say that they are the exception rather than the norm. So why did some nations succeed with the supplanted political system and others didn't?

This is an interesting topic to explore. Governance and political systems are such intricate and complex subjects, and I certainly don't have all the answers. With that in mind, over the next few weeks, I'll continue to muse over these ideas, and see if there's anything we can definitively say about it all. I'll then be tying it to crypto, and the next big phase of blockchain that I see developing in governance.

So, until then, have a great day!

Imagine having the full D&D experience without needing to find a real, human DM. All the set up, narration, and other things done automatically for you, along with the ability to play and interact with your friends.

The best part?

It's all infinitely generated and customizable, giving you a near-eternally variant game of creative adventure, accessible by both smartphones and general web browsers.

Welcome to AI Dungeon.

Sounds Awesome! Tell Me More!

In continuing my exploration of AI, especially with ones designed for consumer use and entertainment, today I'm going to be sharing my adventures with AI Dungeon, a text-based game using AI to generate an adventure for players. Technically, it's a chatbot, since players are basically interacting with a GPT-3 AI (explained below), which is basically responsible for being the Dungeon Master of the whole thing.

The basic gameplay is like this: you create (or join) a game, and then choose the setting. What's great is that there are general (or classic) scenarios like Fantasy, Mystery, Apocalyptic, Cyberpunk, and others. However, both the developers of AI Dungeon and other players have themselves designed scenarios and settings you can use as well! So whether you want a tense fantasy setting where a civil war is about to break out, or if you want a Lovecraft Cthulhu-inspired adventure, it's all basically there for you to explore!

The web browser UI. So many worlds to explore!

Based on what setting you choose, you may also need to choose a class or job. Sometimes, other parameters are asked for, or less parameters are asked for, depending on if you're using a customized scenario or not. Then, the AI generates a world around all this stuff, and off you go!

As mentioned before, if you wanted to, you can actually play this with other friends as well. Each person simply needs to have the app (or go to the website) and log in. Then, the host creates a game, and then sends a link to everyone.

My First Few Adventures

I first found out about this little AI game while browsing through subreddits on Replika, another GPT-3 AI chatbot program I reviewed a few weeks ago. One of the members mentioned this, and I had to take a look. I downloaded the app, signed up for a new account, created a story in the “mystery” genre and became a detective, and before I knew it, I was off on my first adventure!

Here it is in all it's 'glory'!

Yup! You read that right. In my very first adventure, the AI decided kill me without letting me interact with it at all, haha!

It was impossible for me to not have a good laugh after that, and I decided to create a new game and continue exploring the whole thing. Here is another one I started:

As you can see, this one had much more content. I, Demetrius the wizard, was exploring some random ruined fortress for a book of essence. While exploring, I fell asleep, and wake up to see that I've been teleported to some mysterious grassy forest. VERY COOL.

At this point, I should explain some stuff.

As you can see, some of the paragraphs in the chat box above have a little “>” sign in front. Those are inputs made by the player. The ones without the “>” sign was generated from the AI.

All inputs are typed in, and are “Do”, “Say”, or “Story” inputs (to switch, tap the colorful purplish icon). “Do” inputs are actions that you do, “Say” inputs are things your character says, and “Story” inputs are description that you can offer to the AI to help the story along.

Above where you type are a few features you also can use to help the AI and story flow. The 'World' button allows you to put data into the world to build it up. The 'Pin' button is to help the AI remember certain things that are important (e.g. the people in your party).

The 'Pencil' button is for you to edit previous texts, since the AI will sometimes put out stuff that really won't make sense. There are 'Undo' and 'Redo' buttons, as well as a 'Reroll' button to allow you to help the AI generate alternate texts.

Which segues perfectly to the next thing: sometimes, the AI doesn't make sense, or isn't very consistent. Here's an example:

So the game itself told me I was a bard (this was a self-generated scenario). Then, the AI generated my Dwarf saying that she wanted to be a bard? And this was directly after the fictional soldier asked me to join them, because I was ALREADY A BARD.

And that leads us to a discussion about AI today, its current implementations and limits.

GPT-3 and the World of the Future

The AI system being used by AI Dungeon (as well as Replika) is called GPT-3. It is a third generation model of AI produced by OpenAI, a research group based in San Francisco that created it for deep learning language. Basically, GPT-3 can produce human-like language, and even code software and argue with people.

This is pretty crazy stuff. GPT-3 has been developed to the point that most people can't distinguish words written by a human versus written by the AI. That alone, of course, carries with it some utility as well as dangers. Such dangers would include things like spam, data theft, fraudulent writing (i.e. college application essays), and other things besides. This moral and ethical part, I won't be exploring in this blog today, but it's important thing to note.

Rather, it's important to point out what AI is currently, and most definitely isn't.

AI is based mostly on how we understand an animal's ability to learn. In general, as far as we understand it, biological brains are basically a network of nodes that have inputs and outputs. This network receives an input, changes patterns within the network to match that input, and then produces an output. The output is then funneled back into the input to check if the pattern that was produced matches the output.

Because of this, all AI, including GPT-3, are very good at imitating certain behaviors, and learning from those behaviors. But the key part is repetition, meaning the AI must continually receive and produce inputs so that it can match and produce the correct outputs. Thus, each AI, again including GPT-3, is usually pre-trained with certain material (i.e. Wikipedia) before it is released for others to use.

What I've summarized so far is just the basics. The actual inner workings of this stuff is much more complex, including multiple layers between inputs and outputs and such.

What this all means, for us lay-people, is that AI is very good at learning a singular behavior, provided the correct input and amount of repetition. But it is very bad at learning a large number of different behaviors, and juggling between them.

This is primarily why Replika and AI Dungeon, and any AI that is based on these methods, are really great at creating grammatically sound sentences, but not necessarily meaningful or coherent ones. We all laugh at the fact that early developments in this direction led to some really hilarious Harry Potter stories. But such hilarity is due to the fact that AI can certainly output grammatical structures similar to J.K. Rowling's writings, but cannot necessarily produce something that we would consider good literature. Good literature has an abundance of word, image, and other associations that are meaningful to the human experience, both past and present, which are written into our biology as well as our psychology.

With GPT-3, some of these barriers are being broken. After all, Replika is so human sounding that it is legitimately advertised as a emotionally helpful companion, and users generally agree. And as you can see above, AI Dungeon is very good at producing text that sound like it a story that could have been written by a person. But it would be a person with extremely short memory, and an inability to truly conduct meaningful tasks outside of the chat box which could inform it to better interact with the player.

Thus, it is still a long way before anyone should worry about AI taking over the world. We should probably worry more about the humans that will attempt to use it to do so.

Or, perhaps, maybe Ron's Ron shirt really is as bad as Ron himself.

We ended the previous chapter talking about minimum wage laws and their adverse effects on minority ethnic and racial groups. In this chapter, we dive deeper into more specific issues often presented to us about labor and markets, and what their economic effects are.

If you want to see my previous chapter summaries for Thomas Sowell's Basic Economics, please go here. Otherwise, here is the summary and my thoughts for Chapter 12!

Chapter Summary

I want to begin this summary with the quote Sowell also produces at the beginning of the chapter, from Peter Bauer:

The promotion of economic equality and the alleviation of poverty are distinct and often conflicting

I think this is actually a great beginning point for the chapter. Despite labor and allocation of non-human resources being economically identical in principle, we often view them differently. We are more concerned with things like the condition of the work environment, or the security of jobs, or chances of exploitation of workers — things that don't appear when we consider allocating scarce non-human resources. Because of this fact, we need to consider these special issues mentioned when we look at work and pay in the market. Let's begin.

Unemployment Statistics

Unemployment statistics tell us how many people that are legally allowed to be part of the labor market (e.g. NOT children, military forces, prison inmates, etc.), and yet cannot find (for whatever reason) employment despite seeking for it. It's a valuable statistic that can help us to see the health of an economy, but has its limitations — inherent in its definitions.

For example, unemployment rates don't account for people who have stopped actively looking for jobs. In this scenario, it's possible for the unemployment rate to decrease as the number of people without jobs actually goes up. This happened during the Great Recession during 2009 all the way to 2013, when 3.7 million people went from unemployed to non-employed. While political authorities may have touted the decreasing unemployment rate, the number of people without jobs was actually still increasing. In terms of measurement, it would be more prudent to look at the proportion of non-institutional adults that are working vs. not working.

This becomes an even bigger problem when comparing different countries. With different laws, different welfare programs, and different ways to measure such things, it's almost impossible to compare unless you know every country's intricacies in the way they employ, measure employment, and treat non-working people.

But the essential thing is to understand that people who are not employed are not automatically classified as 'unemployed'. And furthermore, there are different ways to classify 'unemployed'. For example, college students who just graduated are 'unemployed', but often only because they are still looking for jobs, but aren't going to fill jobs like table waiting or cashiering. Though often still under the umbrella of “unemployed”, these kinds of people are often markedly different than those who have been unemployed for more than a year and a half.

It's also different from things like technological unemployment, where advances in technology puts people out of work. This often doesn't produce a net unemployment, because jobs lost due to advances in tech are often replaced with jobs to support that new tech. But the people who are unemployed because of the new tech are not the same as the ones that go into the new jobs, because they may have different skill requirements. Thus, again, it is difficult to measure.

Working Conditions

Because we generally care more about people and their labor than goods, governments often regulate working conditions. Better working conditions are more attractive to workers, but also often mean lower scaling of pay, since employers must spend money to create those the better working conditions.

As an example, political authorities will often create benefit mandates (i.e. healthcare) for employers. This would create better working conditions, but incentivize employers to not hire as many employees, since hiring one more would actually cost the company more in required benefits. They would rather pay overtime for their current employees. This doesn't mean, of course, that safety laws aren't necessary—after all, we don't need a child to die in order to make sure they're safe from harm from negligent business owners. Thus, there is a balance that must be struck when determining how to make working conditions better through either law or simply letting the markets function.

Speaking of which, child labor laws are also an important aspect of society. In most countries, these laws are passed even before adult working condition laws are passed. Certainly, most successful societies would want to provide special protection for their most vulnerable. However, many child labor laws now prevent teenagers from working as well, despite them being quite capable. Many organizations, such as labor unions, are incentivized to keep these child labor laws, and even increase the age limits, so as to keep young people in school longer, and out of competition with their members.

Working hours are also a consideration. Many governments of modern societies specify limits on the number of hours one can work in a week. Furthermore, employees often must be given paid holidays. The reduction in work hours is often made so that more workers can be hired. However, the problem is that many societies (like France) require that pay stay basically the same within the shorter work hours, and so employers can not often hire more workers. In reality, it creates a higher wage rate per hour, which often eventually reduces the number of people hired.

But isn't having better working conditions in modern societies better than third world ones? A lot of international corporations are criticized for their low pay and bad working conditions in these third world nations. However, many of the jobs provided by these companies are actually far better, and more in demand, than local ones. Factory jobs are in high demand due to both pay, as well as working conditions, so much so that in Cambodia, people will bribe factory insiders for a job.

Of course, it certainly would be better if these workers had as good of pay or working conditions as their first world counterparts. But that doesn't mean that writing any laws would help. This is because local businesses have to compete for workers with the multinational corporations, so they often need to to increase their own wages as well. And so, the reality is that wages increase as more and more international companies locate to poorer countries. For example, in 2013, the Economist reported that wages in both China and India had been increasing by double digit percentages annually. International or multinational companies force local ones to compete, raising wages and cutting hours, simply because they are incentivized to do so. This is the power of the free market.

Collective Bargaining

Let's talk about how employees negotiate pay and working conditions with employers, often through things like labor unions (for employees) and owner franchises (like major league sports owners).

In negotiation, there are two sides: employer and employee. Both sides have organizations which they are part of. However, the function of these things are still the same economically. When employers collectively agree to put a cap on salaries (e.g. professional sports salaries), they are basically forcing a lower output, aka forced to have lower productivity. This causes workers to then go to other industries where they will be paid more for their work, thus creating loss for consumers where there was demand.

On the other side, if employees force a higher rate of pay that isn't met by the demands of the market, employers will need to re-evaluate what kind of people to hire. Because there is a minimum, these employers are required to look for workers who produce a much higher output than normal. Such higher output workers are often those with the most skill and experience, thus increasing displacement of new and fresh workers from the industry, and so increasing unemployment.

Thus, in both cases, unemployment is actually increased.

Free markets, on the other hand, will over time tend to create a greater balance in pay. In an interesting reversal, when black slaves were freed after the Civil War in the United States, this poor, vulnerable population was beset by organized attempts of white employers to keep black wages low. However, many white employers began to disobey these agreed upon maximums, and were able to lure more workers away to their side. With more productivity on their side, the 'disobedient' white farmers were able to plant and harvest more crops. This competition eventually overrode the agreed upon maximum wages, and real market conditions pushed up both the pay for black Americans, as well as employment.

Such cases of employer association can only really last a longer time by having the law on their side. In this way, professional sports leagues like the MLB have been able to extend monopolistic tendencies, creating no competition, and being the only game in town.

Labor unions similarly displace workers, and have lower output. The automobile industry in the United States was once the greatest output. However, many members began unionizing, demanding higher pay and better working conditions. Japanese car companies, on the other hand, had no union members. In 1950, the United States once produced ¾ths of all the cars in the world, while Japan produced less than a percent of that. By 1990, Japanese car manufacturers had not only overtaken American ones, but had built factories in the United States so as to circumvent export laws the US was trying to create to reduce Japanese automobile exports. By the time we get to the 21st century, Detroit automakers were laying off thousands of people, while Toyota was hiring thousands of American workers.

This, and many other examples besides, has resulted in the decline of unionization among the American workers.

Exploitation

There isn't necessarily a single definition of exploitation, which makes this difficult to quantify. For some, it is not paying workers enough for their labor (which we discussed in previous chapters). But what about employers who are somehow able to receive a higher compensation by charging more than necessary or pay less than necessary to their employees?

The problem with this line of thought is that, when others realize they could somehow gain a higher wage for doing less, they will begin to flood into that very industry in which such is perceived. This creates real competition, which will eventually drive down the price, and force those who are actually not being very efficient to become more efficient, or lose their business. Thus, the market over time actually prevents this kind of exploitation from happening.

It is when governments, with the power and authority of law, step in that we begin to see problems, since they are often create the real barriers against competition, whether it's the state of the MLB or using law to protect unions and labor associations. When individuals are freely able to choose where to work, rather than being held by law or contracts (e.g. Babe Ruth and the New York Yankees), they are then able to drive the competition that will both increase their own wages (Babe Ruth was only paid $80,000 a year, despite his obvious contribution to the Yankees), as well as fairness from employers. It is a problem that current doctors have with government-run healthcare systems.

Let's look at job security laws. In many countries, especially industrial or modern ones, job security laws exist to help reduce unemployment in an industry. However, what they often do is make it much more difficult to dismiss an employee, even if that employee is extremely incompetent. Thus, countries with strong job securities laws actually have high unemployment rates than other modern countries without them. This is because employers who have realized that firing an unproductive employee is an extremely costly endeavor, and so resolve to not hire at all. Instead, once again, they tend to stick to more skilled and more experienced workers.

Occupational Licensing

There is another side as well—jobs which require better trained and skilled workers. These jobs, like doctors, physicians, and attorneys, require licenses before these people can operate (for obvious safety reasons). These licenses have certain requirements, often stringent, before practitioners can legally perform their trade.

The problem with these isn't the licenses, but rather how the licenses are handed out. There are often times when licenses are created, but automatically distributed to all existing practitioners rather than requiring them to perform the requirements. In other cases, there are limits placed on the number of licenses available. In the latter case, it often creates a situation where the license becomes artificially scarce, and drives up the cost to get the license for practitioners. Such a thing has happened to taxi driving in New York City, in which buying an authorization has risen from $10 in 1937 to millions of dollars in 2011.

My Thoughts

Wow, this was a long chapter! But definitely worth the read. Again, Sowell is often so thorough, that it's difficult to have much more to say on the topic.

The idea of governments coming into an industry to regulate it, even if intended to be publicly beneficial (e.g. job security, wages, etc.) has at this point become such a bad idea, talking about it is like beating a dead horse. Yet, today, a lot of people are focused on how government should regulate Big Tech today.

Of course, as people should know by now, we have really huge problems with Big Tech. From censorship to election meddling through ad suppression or promotion, there's a lot that can be said about the dubious practices of Facebook, Google, and the like. And recently, there's been a massive hubbub as the US Senate called Mark Zuckerburg, Jack Dorsey, and others to interrogate them about their companies' practices.

But as I think back on the history of digital technology, one thing has stood out to me: the lack of government intervention has actually benefited the tech industry massively, especially in the United States.

If you were alive in the 1970's to 1980's, the dominant companies in tech were the likes of IBM, Motorola, and Xerox. Crossing into the 80's and 90's, Microsoft, Apple, and Intel came to the fore, and the previous three giants mentioned took a pretty big back seat. Then, heading into the 21st century, companies like Yahoo, Google, and Amazon began to make headwinds into the space, while Apple almost went bankrupt. Microsoft, interestingly enough, kept its dominance, but began to lose a lot of profit in the late 2000s. Of course, we know of the revival of Apple with Steve Jobs coming back, and their subsequent product introductions, including smartphones, tablets, and iPods. But around the same time, Facebook, Youtube, and Twitter became bigger things. Today, these are the companies that have become the mainstays, while the likes of Xerox, Motorola, and IBM are barely even thought of. Even Intel is losing steam pretty fast.

All this to say: the market, unregulated, has been the best check so far on technology. Though we certainly have problems with censorship and things today, I think it would be a grave mistake to assume that government will be the answer to these problems.

I mean, really, have you seen how old those Senators are?

In previous chapters, we looked at the macro-environment of when prices weren't allowed to freely rise and fall according to the market's demands. In this chapter, we'll be taking a look at the effects of such laws (i.e. minimum wage) on the workers.

If you want to read about my summaries and thoughts about previous chapters, please click here. Otherwise, here's the summary and thoughts for chapter 11!

Chapter Summary

As a review, it's important to remember that, when prices (or wages, in this case) are not allowed to go lower as the market demands, it typically creates a surplus of that product or service — which means those things typically goes to waste. In the case of workers, since not every employer (especially of small businesses) can pay that much to their workers, it means that a lot of people would be unemployed. Let's take a look at this important phenomenon.

Unemployment

When we talk about unemployment, or people who are unemployed, we aren't saying that these people are useless or that there is no work for them to do. People are unemployed for various reasons, and many who are can actually do many typical jobs, though perhaps of lesser quality than hired ones. Remember from the previous chapter that those who are younger are often less experienced. When these younger people are delayed from being in the workforce, this lack of experience still follows them as they get older, giving them an ever increasing disadvantage to others who have been employed longer.

Minimum wage laws are not universal in the modern world. Nations like Switzerland and Singapore have no minimum wage laws, and have very low unemployment rates. Even the United States, before the Hoover administration, had no minimum wage law, and its annual unemployment rate was as low as 1.8%. When industrialized countries begin to add these kinds of laws in, however, it's almost inevitable that the unemployment rate begins to increase. This is an almost universally recognized principle for economists.

So why do such laws exist?

Well, some government authorities are beginning to recognize this as well. But such politicians don't really attempt to repeal these laws (which would be unpopular). Instead, they sometimes allow them to continue, and try to just wait for inflation to overtake the minimum wage.

Other organizations like labor unions lobby for and keep minimum wage laws because it's in their union members' own interests. This is because a large majority of union members actually earn higher than the minimum wage. By enacting minimum wage laws, they actually displace those who would have earned lower than the minimum wage (since employers can no longer keep those kinds of workers), and thus create an artificial demand for their members. In this way, labor unions 'tariff' the price of non-union labor that competes for union members' jobs.

A popular way minimum wage is being sold to Americans nowadays is the idea of a “living wage”. This is idea that each city has a different living standards than others, and as such, a minimum wage wouldn't be enough for those living in these cities. Of course, when we understand that artificially increasing prices always leads to surplus, no matter if it's called “minimum wage” or “living wage”, it's easy to predict what happens next: that the poorest people in these cities are the ones who have most often lost their jobs. As Sowell says:

Dozens of studies of the effects of minimum wages in the United States...Europe, Latin America, the Caribbean, Indonesia, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand...concluded that, despite the various approaches and methods used in these studies, this literature as a whole was one “largely solidifying the conventional view that minimum wages reduce employment among low-skilled workers.”

Despite this, many organizations or governmental commissions attempt to debunk this fact. A problem with most of these studies is that they often can only measure the employment of businesses that have survived the minimum wage laws. They don't account for the number of businesses that failed, which is precisely what happens when a city's unemployment increases.

No matter how one feels about whether there should be a floor for wages, the reality is that instituting these kinds of laws will always have negative consequences on the very people the laws were supposed to help.

Sowell importantly notes, “In a free market, low-productivity workers are just as employable at a low wage rate as high-productivity workers are at a high wage rate.” In other words, it doesn't matter in a free market whether someone is highly skilled, highly intelligent, or lowly skilled and less knowledgeable. They are all employable, and can all earn a living. But when minimum wage laws are introduced, only the higher productivity people can be employed, as lower skilled people have their options taken away, and are priced out of work.

Differential Impact

In the last section of this chapter, Sowell looks at the impacts of minimum wage across different countries and people around the world.

In Australia, where the minimum wage is almost 60% of the nation's median wage the lowest unemployment rate generally never reached as low as 10% from 1978 to 2002.

In France, at the turn of the millennium, national unemployment had gone up to 10%, but for those under the age of 25, the unemployment rate was higher than 20%. Across the European Union, during the 2009 global recession, the unemployment was 21% for the same age range, and in some places (like Spain) hd reached as high as 40%.

Similarly, in the United States, in imitating European nations' minimum wage laws, it went from having lower unemployment rates than Canada, Britain, Germany, France, and Japan in the early 2000's to being higher than them by the time 2011 rolled around.

What about racial minority groups? After all, minimum wage laws are often touted to help these less-advantaged groups in industrial societies. An interesting fact Sowell points out is that, in the 1920's, minimum wage laws were actually introduced in order to eliminate competition from minorities, including Japanese in Canada or blacks in the United States or South Africa. With this in mind, let's look at the actual history.

In the United States, before federal minimum wage laws became a thing in the 1930's, black unemployment rate was actually lower than white unemployment. In the 1930's several laws were enacted, including the Davis Bacon Act of 1931, the National Industrial Recovery Act of 1933, and the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938, which all set or raised minimum wage laws at a federal level. Furthermore, the National Labor Relations Act of 1935 promoted unionization. While the National Industrial Recovery Act was eventually knocked down for being unconstitutional, the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 which came later was upheld.

What was the effect of these laws? Black unemployment surpassed that of whites in 1948. By the time 1949 came around, teenage black unemployment rate went to almost 16%, and by the time we get to 1971, it was two times that, and stayed that way that until 1997. In 2009, it was more than three times that, which means it was almost 50%.

We can't blame these things on lack of education, skills, and racism. After all, it was far worse in the early and mid twentieth century for black Americans. The truth is that it can only be associated with one thing—the minimum wage laws that were instituted and continued since then.

My Thoughts

As I read through this chapter, I realized that Sowell (whether directly or indirectly) was arguing for a fascinating reversal in societal expectations.

Here's the jimmy: In school, I was often taught that the best way to earn a living was to get the best education I could, so that I could then jumpstart my work life and get ahead, earning more due to my bachelor's, master's, or graduate degree. In fact, one of the mantras taught to me in high school was that, by going to university to get my undergraduate degree, I would come out automatically earning more than with a high school degree.

There are several problems with this.

First of all, most of the statistics I was shown was comparing the salary of a kid straight out of high school to someone that just graduated university. But the college graduate was, on average, four years older already. So it would be more appropriate to compare the two in the same age, with the bachelor's degree graduate vs a high schooler with at least four years of experience.

Second, the university graduate comes out with a ton of student loan debt. And so all salaries would need to be balanced against the fact that the graduate would be owing money for several years after the fact.

Third, a university undergrad is not often trained for special or specific work. Instead, undergrad degrees are often extremely general, and it's really only when you get a graduate degree that specialization begins in any field. In fact, undergrads are so unspecialized, that 43% of them are underemployed in the first year of work! This varies, of course, but the fact that 43% is an average is extraordinarily disturbing.

It means that, for any average college grad, you are likely to graduate and work for less than what your degree demands, and additionally have to pay massive tuition loans on top of that. All the while not having any real world work experience.

We often hear today (at least we do in the United States) about the failure of education systems. But often the conversation is concentrated on improving testing standards, or changing the way school curriculum is structured, or reforming the way teachers are educated and supported.

But the simple truth is this: because most schools are a structured system that adhere to a singular process, they can NEVER guarantee someone will learn what they as an unique individual needs to learn in order to earn a living. They only rely on a formulaic process to churn out the same types of people over and over.

But schools cannot replace real work experience, no matter how well-taught students are. Experience begets experience. In fact, the most effective schools often include on-job training programs, but that can only go so far, since students in the school system are not often taught failure and working through failure in the process.

What would be implied from what Sowell has written so far is advocacy for teenagers to begin working again, rather than hamstringing them by attempting to force higher learning or education on them. When people are exposed to competition, and learn to do the best they can in that environment, they are made stronger and better for it, by experience. Here, I'm reminded of a quote from Christopher Nolan's film, Batman Begins:

Why do we fall? So we can learn to pick ourselves up.

Once in a while, I like the sit back and think about the various ways different spheres and genres collide. I especially like the reminisce about the “old days”, or namely, my childhood, and how it informs on what I do and think about today. I wrote a while ago on How Gamers Save the World as well as the junction between the popular simulation game Rollercoaster Tycoon and what it can teach us about finances.

Today, I want to do a similar thing, but this time with another famous game franchise called Diablo, created by Blizzard Entertainment. It is a game series based around slaying evil monsters and wicked demons, fantastically gothic action-adventure, and most pertinent to our purposes, epic loot.

Specifically, I will be talking more about the 2nd installment in the series, Diablo II, and how it can help inform on how we think about the intersection of games and crypto today.

The Piracy of Killing Demons

I have a nostalgic affection for this franchise. Introduced to me by my brother when I was a young kid, this horror-turned-action game thrilled me the moment I stepped into the world. I never really played the first game, but I still remember with near graphic detail my first forays into the world of Sanctuary in the sequel. I played as the sorceress, whose powers seemed epic in exposition. But once I stepped into the game world, I felt extraordinarily dinky and powerless (yet excited). I quickly began dispatching the horrors awaiting me in the Den of Evil and soon moved on to killing Andariel, Duriel, Mephisto, and eventually, the Lord of Terror himself, Diablo.

The conceit of the Diablo franchise is to package action-oriented role-playing with the acquisition of loot. While the player is often drawn towards the game through the advertised atmosphere and addictive game mechanics, those that stay and keep playing do so because of a desire for rare items one can potentially gain as they kill more and more monsters and bosses. Oftentimes, the rarer the item, the more powerful it is. As such, the game became based around getting great loot, as if the players were pirates (in a meta game way). From armor to weapons to accessories like amulets and rings, these items eventually became everything that the game revolved around after one was done with the story.

As players began to farm the game throughout the years, one unique item became one of the most sought-after for all players. It was a small ring called the Stone of Jordan, and gave benefits to nearly every single class of Diablo II. It was also useful for crafting new items, and gave access to late game boss content, which dropped even cooler and rarer items. Being a ring, it had a small footprint, which was important in terms of conserving player inventory.

Due to the item's size, utility, and rarity, it eventually became a source of currency between players in the game. After all, the in-game gold currency was neither rare nor of much use in the grand scheme of things, so players instead traded Stones of Jordan for various items that they wanted. It became such a standard form of currency, in fact, that hackers would find ways to duplicate (i.e. counterfeit) the rings, and Blizzard had to patch the game multiple times to remove these cheats.

What We Can Learn

There's a lot we can take away from what happened with Diablo II and the Stone of Jordan as it pertains to cryptocurrency. There certainly are immediate parallels, like the idea of playing to obtain the item as currency, which is similar to the probabilistic way 'mining' or Proof of Work blockchains function (which may be an interesting way a developer may want to implement their crypto project in the future). But I want to focus on the bigger picture today.

First is the understanding that value cannot be forced onto people. While new players in Diablo II often find themselves saving gold to buy items from the game's NPC shopkeepers, as they began to level up and find better loot, they'll realize that the game's standard currency is essentially worth nothing. Instead, trading with other players online was a much surer way to obtain valuable items. But what do other players' want, and what is the standard for that?

The Stone of Jordan was never picked by Diablo II's developers as any sort of de facto currency. Instead, it evolved into a form of currency as the players began to play more and more. Thus, rather than a top-down approach to value, the medium of currency is best derived when what people value is also increasingly used.

This brings us to our second lesson: that value is derived from utility as well as rarity. The Stone of Jordan was a useful gadget. It could be used by all 7 classes in the game, and its benefits became the standard by which all other rings in the game could be measured. It was its utility that made it desirable for players.

But, on the other hand, it was also rare, but not rare to the point as to make it unobtainable for the average player. This is actually pretty important. If something is not rare, then the quantity will devalue it until no one would use it as an item to barter with (like what happened when the hackers duplicated the Stone of Jordan into oblivion). However, we also don't want the thing to be so rare, that it's worth more to hold onto than spend.

I think we can see this today. There are many hundreds of different cryptos and coins. But very few of them have become what Bitcoin was originally designed to be—a source of currency that is used to trade for goods and services. Not even Bitcoin is used like this anymore. Instead, most cryptos are hoarded or discarded—two opposite extremes that aren't signs of a healthy economy. With the current trend in DeFi, most coins are held in some kind of service that generates interest or loans, instead of being used to purchase real goods and services outside of DeFi. This is because the current attitude is to speculate on the future value of a coin, hoping that it will increase as Bitcoin did in 2017.

If the ideal is to create a real digital currency, one that is supposed to be used as well as saved, then the utility of the currency must be balanced with its rarity, so that speculation doesn't outweigh the real use-cases it has.

I think the understanding that value is subjective is the most important part of it all. There are still thousands of crypto projects today, and it's predictable that many hundreds and thousands may come and go in the future. But I think a sign of the crypto market maturing will be when people begin to consolidate around a few projects, like what is happening with Ethereum now (where the vast majority of non-new blockchain development is currently). Of course, there's no way Ethereum could host all of the blockchain development in the world (I doubt any single blockchain could), so there's certainly room for more competitors in the space.

So if I were to guess what blockchains will be most valuable in the future, I would actually guess it would be those with the most amount of developers working on different projects within that blockchain's ecosystem, rather than any single blockchain company right now. And that value is going to be coming from the masses who will choose it. In other words, the market will have the final say on which one is the most valuable.

Which leads us to our third lesson: the choosing of a currency by the market will be based on how easy, and even fun, it is to use. Diablo II is a fun game. People like to play it. In the same way, unless cryptocurrency becomes easier and more intuitive to use than the competition (i.e. banks/financial institutions as well as services like PayPal and Venmo), it may actually never be very widely adopted—at least not in its libertarian ideal. Perhaps it could be used as the backend by banks, but the majority of people may never benefit from it.

Final Thoughts

I'm a big believer in video games and their benefits to both our psyche as individuals, as well as society as a whole. In many ways, it could be said that human beings have been endowed by our Creator to play. We can see it in our kids, we can see it in our youth, and it's not very far-fetched to assume most adults yearn for it, to the point where we watch others do it in professional as well as amateur sports.

But there's something about play that also informs us about a variety of other aspects of life. Even in technologically advanced societies such as ours, we can take these simulations to help us learn about ourselves, society, and the world around us. And when we do, we're all the better for it.